## Q21 key (Plea Offer Before Dawn)

1. The plea range is 30 to 42 months gross and 22 to 34 months after the fixed eight-month credit. The prosecutor's 30-month recommendation is not a guaranteed sentence. Missed: Malik decides as though 22 months net is assured.
2. Trial branches are fixed at 25 percent acquittal, 20 percent lesser theft, and 55 percent robbery plus firearm. Counsel must not revise those odds from the evidence narrative. Missed: the decision is driven by invented confidence.
3. Gross expected trial custody range is 20 percent of 12 to 18 plus 55 percent of 84 to 108, with the acquittal branch at zero: 48.6 to 63 months. Missed: a midpoint or unweighted range hides trial exposure.
4. Presentence credit applies only in the 75 percent conviction branches. Expected credit is 75 percent of eight months, or six months, producing a net expected trial custody range of 42.6 to 57 months. Missed: eight months is subtracted from every branch, including acquittal, or not subtracted at all.
5. Trial offers a 25 percent chance of acquittal and a 45 percent chance of avoiding a robbery conviction, but only a 25 percent chance of no conviction and no sentence. The lesser-theft branch still carries 4 to 10 months beyond time served after credit. Missed: “no robbery” is confused with “no more custody.”
6. License consequence is three years after release for plea or robbery conviction, six months for lesser theft, and none for acquittal. Missed: livelihood risk is omitted from the branch comparison.
7. The plea dominates on expected custody and eliminates the 84-to-108-month branch. Recommend accepting unless Malik knowingly places exceptional value on the 25 percent acquittal chance and accepts the quantified tail; document that the final decision is his before 4:00 p.m. Missed: counsel either coerces the plea or fails to advise against a much higher supplied risk.