I'm calculating the expected verdict using probability-weighted outcomes, then working through how the fee structure applies. The attorney gets reimbursed for costs first, then takes a third of what remains, with the client receiving the rest after any liens are deducted.

The expected fee conditional on winning is about $533k, which matches the simpler calculation of dividing the net recovery by three. Accounting for the 45% loss probability, the firm's expected net is roughly $185k after subtracting unreimbursed costs, which exceeds the $175k threshold, so this case is economically viable. Lena's expected recovery works out to about $499k after all deductions.

Now checking the procedural timeline: certificates arrive in 20 days, the statute of limitations runs 110 days out, and the policy requires filing at least 30 days before that deadline—meaning day 80 is the cutoff. With a 60-day cushion, we're well within bounds. On causation, the 60% threshold is met, though I need to carefully establish that an immediate consultation around 11:20 p.m. would have realistically gotten her into surgery before 2 a.m., which is the critical factual link.

The expected net recovery of $185,333 clears the $175,000 threshold by about $10,333—a thin 5.9% margin. I'm working through the break-even analysis to see where costs would need to rise before the case becomes uneconomical.

If costs balloon to around $256,300, the expected return drops to exactly $175,000, meaning we have roughly $16,300 of cost overrun tolerance before hitting the policy floor. On the probability side, success can't fall below 53.7% without dipping below the threshold—another tight constraint.

The breach itself looks fairly solid given the 8+ hour delay after the MRI was acknowledged, though I'll still need the expert to establish that this falls below the standard of care.

I'm recommending we accept this case with conditions: lock in cost discipline, retain both experts formally with signed certificates, pull the full EMR audit trail showing when the MRI was acknowledged