I'm working through the sentencing calculation by applying the trial outcome probabilities to the custody ranges. For the lesser theft conviction scenario, that's 20% probability with 12-18 months before credit. For the robbery with firearm outcome at 55% probability, the range is 84-108 months. I'm multiplying each probability by the low and high endpoints to get the expected values across these scenarios.

After accounting for the 8-month credit that only applies if convicted (75% probability), the expected net custody from trial comes to 42.6-57.0 months. Comparing that to the plea offer of 22-34 months net, there's a substantial gap. The defendant has a 45% chance of avoiding a robbery conviction entirely, but faces a 55% chance of 76-100 additional months if convicted on the robbery charge—a significant downside asymmetry that makes the plea more attractive despite the odds being closer to even. Trial acquittal is just 25%, not a coin flip, and the 45% no-robbery branch still includes the 20% theft conviction that adds 4–10 months plus a 6-month license suspension. The real asymmetry is stark: trial's robbery conviction path runs 42–66 months worse than the plea's worst case, while the upside of avoiding conviction saves only 22–34 months — and that's if he wins outright.

The plea caps