## Bottom line

**Plea:** Malik would plead guilty to robbery, the firearm count would be dismissed, and the judge could sentence him to **30 to 42 months**. After his **8 months** of presentence credit, that means **22 to 34 months of additional custody**. The plea would also bring a **3-year security-officer license suspension after release**.

**Trial:** Based only on the supplied odds:

- **25% acquittal** — no sentence, no license suspension.
- **20% lesser-theft-only conviction** — 12 to 18 months before credit, or **4 to 10 months after credit**, plus a **6-month license suspension**.
- **55% robbery-plus-firearm conviction** — 84 to 108 months before credit, or **76 to 100 months after credit**, plus a **3-year license suspension after release**.

The trial’s **expected custody range**, using only supplied low and high endpoints, is **48.6 to 63.0 months before credit**, or **42.6 to 57.0 months after credit**. That is not a predicted sentence; the actual trial outcomes are the three branches above.

Given Malik’s statement that he **“cannot do nine years”** and that he wants the real numbers, my concrete recommendation is:

> **If Malik’s controlling concern is avoiding the 76-to-100-month exposure, I would advise him to accept the robbery plea by 4:00 p.m. before he is locked into the risk of a much longer sentence.**  
> But if, after hearing the full risk, Malik values the chance to avoid a 3-year license suspension and the chance of no jail time more than avoiding the 76-to-100-month range, then rejecting the plea and going to trial is a rational choice. The decision is his alone.

---

# 1. Plea offer: custody range before and after credit

The offer is:

- Malik pleads guilty to **robbery**.
- The **firearm count is dismissed**.
- The prosecutor will **recommend 30 months**.
- The judge may impose **any sentence from 30 to 42 months**.
- Malik must receive credit for **8 months of presentence custody**.

So the plea custody range is:

| Step | Custody range |
|---|---:|
| Sentence before credit | **30 to 42 months** |
| Credit for time already served | **minus 8 months** |
| Additional custody after credit | **22 to 34 months** |

Important: I cannot say the judge will impose 30 months. There is no supplied probability for where in the 30-to-42-month range the judge will land. If the judge imposes 30 months, Malik serves **22 more months**. If the judge imposes 42 months, Malik serves **34 more months**.

License consequence from the plea:

- A robbery plea suspends Malik’s security-officer license for **3 years after release**.

No other fine, immigration, or fee consequence is supplied.

---

# 2. Trial outcome probabilities

Counsel’s fixed, supplied probabilities are:

| Trial outcome | Probability |
|---|---:|
| Acquittal on all counts | **25%** |
| Conviction only for lesser theft | **20%** |
| Conviction for robbery and firearm count | **55%** |

These probabilities already account for the eyewitness, surveillance, clothing, absence of DNA on the weapon, and the driver’s credibility issues. I am not adding or subtracting any odds.

---

# 3. Trial sentence ranges before and after presentence credit

The supplied trial sentencing ranges are:

| Trial outcome | Probability | Sentence before credit | Sentence after 8-month credit |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Acquittal | 25% | No sentence | No additional custody |
| Lesser theft only | 20% | 12 to 18 months | 4 to 10 months |
| Robbery plus firearm | 55% | 84 to 108 months | 76 to 100 months |

The 8-month credit applies to any custodial sentence after trial. It is not applied to an acquittal because there is no sentence to credit.

---

# 4. Expected trial custody range using only supplied endpoints

Because no probability is supplied for a particular sentence within a range, I cannot use the midpoint as a predicted sentence. I must apply the probabilities to the low and high endpoints.

## Expected trial custody before credit

Low endpoint:

\[
(0.25 \times 0) + (0.20 \times 12) + (0.55 \times 84)
\]

\[
= 0 + 2.4 + 46.2 = 48.6
\]

High endpoint:

\[
(0.25 \times 0) + (0.20 \times 18) + (0.55 \times 108)
\]

\[
= 0 + 3.6 + 59.4 = 63.0
\]

So the expected trial custody range before credit is:

> **48.6 to 63.0 months**

That is a weighted endpoint range, not a guaranteed sentence.

---

## Expected trial custody after presentence credit

Now apply the 8-month credit only to the branches where there is a custodial sentence.

Low endpoint:

\[
(0.25 \times 0) + (0.20 \times 4) + (0.55 \times 76)
\]

\[
= 0 + 0.8 + 41.8 = 42.6
\]

High endpoint:

\[
(0.25 \times 0) + (0.20 \times 10) + (0.55 \times 100)
\]

\[
= 0 + 2.0 + 55.0 = 57.0
\]

So the expected trial custody range after credit is:

> **42.6 to 57.0 months**

Again, that is not a prediction that Malik will get 42.6 or 57 months. The actual possible trial outcomes are:

- **0 months additional custody** — 25% chance.
- **4 to 10 months additional custody** — 20% chance.
- **76 to 100 months additional custody** — 55% chance.

---

# 5. License consequence in each branch

| Branch | License consequence |
|---|---|
| **Plea to robbery** | **3-year suspension after release** |
| **Trial acquittal** | **No suspension** |
| **Trial lesser-theft-only conviction** | **6-month suspension** |
| **Trial robbery-plus-firearm conviction** | **3-year suspension after release**, because the robbery conviction triggers the 3-year suspension |

So the license risk is:

| Path | Chance of no license suspension | Chance of 6-month suspension | Chance of 3-year suspension |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Plea | 0% | 0% | **100%** |
| Trial | **25%** | **20%** | **55%** |

Malik’s license is his principal livelihood, so this is a major consequence, not a minor collateral detail.

---

# 6. Probability of no robbery conviction

## If Malik pleads

A plea to robbery is a robbery conviction.

> Probability of no robbery conviction: **0%**

## If Malik goes to trial

No robbery conviction includes:

- Acquittal: 25%
- Lesser-theft-only conviction: 20%

Total:

\[
25\% + 20\% = 45\%
\]

> Probability of no robbery conviction at trial: **45%**

---

# 7. Probability of no incarceration beyond the 8 months already served

## If Malik pleads

Even at the low end of the plea range, the sentence is 30 months. After 8 months of credit, that is 22 months still to serve.

> Probability of no additional incarceration if he pleads: **0%**

## If Malik goes to trial

Only an acquittal produces no sentence at all.

- Acquittal: 25%
- Lesser theft: 20%, but after credit the sentence is still 4 to 10 months.
- Robbery plus firearm: 55%, after credit 76 to 100 months.

Therefore:

> Probability of no incarceration beyond time already served at trial: **25%**

---

# 8. Risk difference between plea and trial

## Plea risk profile

The plea is not a coin flip. It is a known sentencing range, but the exact point in the range is not known.

| Consequence | Plea |
|---|---:|
| Robbery conviction | 100% |
| Firearm count | Dismissed |
| Sentence before credit | 30 to 42 months |
| Additional custody after credit | 22 to 34 months |
| No additional incarceration | 0% |
| No robbery conviction | 0% |
| 3-year license suspension after release | 100% |

The plea caps his additional custody at **34 months** and avoids the 55% trial chance of 76 to 100 months. The cost is a certain robbery conviction and a certain 3-year post-release license suspension.

---

## Trial risk profile

| Consequence | Trial |
|---|---:|
| Acquittal | 25% |
| Lesser-theft-only conviction | 20% |
| Robbery-plus-firearm conviction | 55% |
| No additional incarceration | 25% |
| Additional custody range if acquitted | 0 |
| Additional custody range if lesser theft | 4 to 10 months |
| Additional custody range if robbery plus firearm | 76 to 100 months |
| Expected additional custody range | 42.6 to 57.0 months |
| No robbery conviction | 45% |
| 3-year license suspension | 55% |
| 6-month license suspension | 20% |
| No license suspension | 25% |

The trial is not a simple coin flip. It is a 25/20/55 lottery:

- **25% chance of walking free** with no sentence and no license suspension.
- **20% chance of a short sentence** of 4 to 10 months after credit and a 6-month license suspension.
- **55% chance of the worst sentencing range**, 76 to 100 months after credit and a 3-year license suspension.

The trial’s expected custody range after credit, **42.6 to 57.0 months**, is above the plea’s maximum after-credit custody of **34 months**. That does not mean Malik “should expect” 42.6 to 57 months as a sentence. It means that when the supplied endpoints are weighted by the supplied probabilities, the trial’s weighted custody range is higher than the plea range.

---

## The central tradeoff

The plea and trial are different kinds of risk.

### Plea tradeoff

Malik gets:

- **Certainty of avoiding 76 to 100 months.**
- Additional custody capped at **22 to 34 months**.
- Firearm count dismissed.

Malik gives up:

- **45% chance of no robbery conviction.**
- **25% chance of no jail time at all.**
- **45% chance of avoiding a 3-year license suspension** — 25% no suspension plus 20% only a 6-month suspension.

### Trial tradeoff

Malik gets:

- **25% chance of full acquittal.**
- **45% chance of no robbery conviction.**
- **45% chance of avoiding the 3-year license suspension.**
- **20% chance of only 4 to 10 months additional custody.**

Malik takes on:

- **55% chance of 76 to 100 months additional custody.**
- **55% chance of a 3-year license suspension after release.**
- A worse weighted custody range than the plea.

---

# 9. Concrete recommendation before 4:00 p.m.

My concrete recommendation is:

> **If Malik’s hard limit is that he cannot do nine years, and if he cannot accept a 55% chance of receiving 76 to 100 months of additional custody, I would advise him to accept the plea by 4:00 p.m.**

That recommendation follows from the numbers he asked for:

- The plea caps additional custody at **34 months**.
- The trial has a **55% chance** of **76 to 100 months** additional custody.
- The trial’s expected custody range after credit is **42.6 to 57.0 months**, which is above the plea’s entire after-credit range.
- The plea avoids the long-sentence risk, but it guarantees a **3-year post-release license suspension**.

However, I must be equally clear about the license issue. Because Malik’s security-officer license is his principal livelihood, the plea’s certain 3-year suspension is a serious cost. Trial gives him:

- a **25% chance of no suspension**,
- a **20% chance of only a 6-month suspension**, and
- a **55% chance of the same 3-year suspension he would get from the plea**, but with a much larger custody risk.

So if Malik decides that preserving the license is worth accepting the 55% chance of 76 to 100 months, then rejecting the plea is a rational choice. Expected-value analysis does not compel a risk-neutral result. The final decision belongs to him.

---

# 10. Decision Malik must personally make

Malik must personally choose one of these two paths before **4:00 p.m.**:

## Option A: Accept the plea

Malik would:

- plead guilty to robbery,
- have the firearm count dismissed,
- receive a sentence from the judge within **30 to 42 months**,
- receive credit for **8 months**,
- serve **22 to 34 months additional custody**,
- and receive a **3-year license suspension after release**.

For the plea to happen, Malik must personally authorize me to accept it. I cannot accept it for him.

## Option B: Reject the plea and go to trial

Malik would:

- lose the plea offer at 4:00 p.m.,
- face a 25/20/55 trial outcome,
- have a 45% chance of no robbery conviction,
- have a 25% chance of no jail time at all,
- but have a 55% chance of 76 to 100 months additional custody and a 3-year license suspension.

If Malik rejects the plea, he is making that risk knowingly and voluntarily. He cannot later ask me to accept this offer for him after the deadline unless the prosecutor gives a new offer.