Malik,

This is the 4:00 p.m. decision. I am using only the fixed probabilities and stated ranges. I am not adjusting the odds based on the driver, video, DNA, or anything else, because those factors are already built into the 25/20/55 numbers. I also cannot predict which point within any sentencing range the judge will choose.

## 1. If you accept the plea

- Conviction: robbery.
- Firearm count: dismissed.
- Sentence range: **30 to 42 months**.
- Prosecutor will recommend 30 months, but the judge may impose anywhere in the 30-to-42 range.
- After the 8 months’ presentence credit: **22 to 34 months still to serve**.
- Total time from arrest to release if sentenced at the top end: 42 months.
- License: **security-officer license suspended for 3 years after release**.
- There is **no chance** of no additional custody if you take the plea.

## 2. If you go to trial

| Trial outcome | Probability | Sentence | After 8-month credit | License consequence |
|---|---:|---|---|---|
| Acquittal | 25% | No sentence | No additional custody (but 8 months already served cannot be undone) | No suspension |
| Lesser theft only | 20% | 12–18 months | 4–10 months still to serve | Suspended 6 months after release |
| Robbery + firearm count | 55% | 84–108 months | 76–100 months still to serve | Suspended 3 years after release |

So the odds are not a clean “coin flip” between walking and nine years. The cleanest outcome—acquittal with no further prison and no suspension—is only 25%. Another 20% is a lesser theft conviction with additional time and a 6-month suspension. The remaining 55% is the robbery/firearm conviction.

## 3. Expected trial numbers

Counting an acquittal as zero sentence:

- Expected trial sentence before credit:  
  \[
  0.25(0)+0.20(12\text{–}18)+0.55(84\text{–}108)
  = \textbf{48.6 to 63 months}
  \]

- Expected additional custody after properly applying the 8-month credit:  
  \[
  0.20(4\text{–}10)+0.55(76\text{–}100)
  = \textbf{42.6 to 57 months}
  \]

Do not just subtract 8 from the 48.6-to-63 expected sentence, because an acquittal has no sentence and no credit. The correct expected additional time after credit is **42.6 to 57 months**.

- Including the 8 months already served, expected total time in custody after trial is **50.6 to 65 months**.

These are weighted averages, not actual possible sentences. A judge will not sentence someone to “48.6 months.” The point is that the expected value of trial is worse than the plea.

## 4. Key probabilities

- Probability of **no robbery conviction** at trial:  
  \[
  25\% + 20\% = \textbf{45\%}
  \]

- Probability of **no incarceration beyond time already served**:  
  \[
  \textbf{25\%}
  \]
  That is only the acquittal branch. A lesser theft conviction still leaves 4–10 months after credit.

- If you take the plea, both of those probabilities are **0%**: you are certain to be convicted of robbery and certain to serve additional time.

## 5. Risk difference

- **Plea**: certain robbery conviction, certain 22–34 months additional custody, certain 3-year license suspension after release. No chance of 0 months, no chance of 4–10 months, no chance of 76–100 months.
- **Trial**: 25% chance of no further prison; 20% chance of 4–10 months and a 6-month suspension; 55% chance of 76–100 months and a 3-year suspension after a much later release.

The expected months favor the plea. But that does not guarantee what will happen. If you go to trial, there is a real 25% chance you would be glad you rejected the offer, and a real 55% chance you would not be.

If your hard limit really is “I cannot do nine years,” then trial cannot promise you safety from that. The robbery/firearm range goes up to 108 months, and there is a 55% chance of that conviction branch.

## 6. Recommendation and decision

My concrete recommendation: **accept the plea before 4:00 p.m.** It eliminates the 55% chance of a 84-to-108-month sentence and the firearm conviction. It gives you a certain maximum total sentence of 42 months, with 22–34 months still to serve.

But this is your decision, not mine. I cannot accept the offer for you. You must personally authorize me to accept it before 4:00 p.m. If you do not, the offer expires and we prepare for trial.